How Likely Is a Blackjack Dealer to Bust? What the Stats Say

Blackjack is a well-known casino game, and many people wonder how often the dealer ends up going over 21. This idea—when the dealer’s total becomes too high—plays a big part in how a round turns out.

This blog post looks at what influences that outcome, including the dealer’s first face-up card and how certain hands tend to develop. It also includes a full breakdown of the numbers and what patterns tend to appear over time.

You’ll see that the dealer’s first card can hint at what might happen later in the round, though the full picture only becomes clear as we go.

Read on to learn more.

Introduction: Understanding Dealer Busts and Player Outcomes

In blackjack, the dealer follows specific rules for drawing cards, rather than making choices like a player might. Usually, they continue to draw until reaching a total of at least 17.

If their total passes 21, the round changes sharply—anyone still holding cards automatically benefits from that result. Those who have already gone over 21 earlier in the hand do not.

The card the dealer shows first, known as the upcard, plays a bigger role than it may seem. Some of these upcards lead to more rounds ending above 21, while others rarely do. We’ll look closer at which ones make the difference shortly.

How Often Do Dealers Bust In Blackjack? (& Does Everyone Win?)

Across most standard blackjack tables where the dealer stands on 17, this situation happens in about 28% of rounds. That figure can move slightly depending on how many decks are used or whether the dealer must draw on certain 17s.

It might sound like a straightforward win for others at the table when it happens, but that’s not always the case. Anyone who had already gone over 21 earlier would still lose their stake at that stage. Only those still active in the round benefit if the dealer later exceeds 21.

So, while knowing these averages can help someone understand how games tend to play out, it doesn’t determine a specific result. Every hand follows its own sequence, and the choices made along the way influence what happens next. If you choose to play, it’s worth setting limits and sticking to them.

How Dealer Bust Probability Changes With Different Upcards

The dealer’s first face-up card is a strong hint at what may follow. When that card is low—such as a 2 through 6—the dealer often has to draw extra cards to reach their total of 17 or higher. The more cards drawn, the greater the chance that the total might pass 21.

That’s why a dealer starting with a 5 or 6 often ends up going over more frequently, roughly around four times in ten rounds.

By contrast, when the upcard is higher, such as a 7 through to an Ace, the pattern changes. Those hands allow the dealer to reach 17 more directly, and in the case of an Ace, to count it as either 1 or 11 as needed. This flexibility keeps the total below 22 more often, which is why those rounds end differently.

Soon, we’ll look at the numbers for each specific upcard side by side.

Statistical Breakdown of Dealer Busts by Card Value

Now that the general idea is clear, here’s how the figures line up by card.

If the dealer’s upcard is a 2, they go over roughly 35% of the time. With a 3, the chance rises to about 37%. The 4 and 5 lift it further to around 40–42%. When the dealer shows a 6, this figure peaks near 42%—the highest of any starting card.

Once the upcard reaches 7 or more, the numbers begin to fall. With a 7, it drops to about 26%; an 8 or 9 brings it to roughly 24% and 23% respectively; a 10 sits at about 23%; and an Ace, offering the most flexibility, brings the chance of going over down to around 17%.

This shows why the table may feel quite different depending on what the dealer reveals first.

Key Takeaways From Dealer Bust Statistics

Putting it all together, the averages form a clear pattern:

• The overall rate of a dealer going over 21 sits near 28%, depending on the table rules.
• Lower upcards — especially 4, 5, and 6 — are linked with the highest bust frequencies.
• Higher upcards reduce those figures, with an Ace bringing them to the lowest level.

If you choose to play, it might help to remember these are tendencies, not guarantees. Blackjack unfolds differently from hand to hand. Keeping within personal limits, using available gambling support tools, and taking breaks all help to keep your play balanced and responsible.

Setting time or spending boundaries before starting can also make a big difference, and if the game ever feels difficult to step back from, it’s best to pause or take a break.

Play Blackjack Online at King Casino

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Our site layout is designed to help you easily find the games and formats that suit you best. To support responsible play, you can use our built-in tools to set limits and keep track of your activity.

If you’d like to see what’s available at King Casino, feel free to create an account, add funds to your balance, and explore our collection of blackjack games at your own pace.

_{*All values (Bet Levels, Maximum Wins, etc.) mentioned in relation to this game are subject to change at any time. Game features mentioned may not be available in some jurisdictions.}

_{**The information provided in this blog is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as betting advice or a guarantee of success. Always gamble responsibly.}